Ridership (Part 1)

I will be estimating high speed rail ridership for each corridor using two groups: air passengers and drivers. Rail offers a different combination of time and cost than driving or flying. Some HSR riders will come from existing air travelers and some from existing drivers.

First, let’s look at air travelers. (Next time, I’ll include drivers.) The numbers for air travel are easier, since there is solid data on the number and costs of flights.

In order to compare time lost to money saved, I convert time to money at an hourly rate of $42.10¹¹ (71 cents per minute). The result is the net benefit. For instance, if HSR on a particular route takes one hour longer than flying, but a train ticket costs $72.10 less, the net benefit is $30 ($72.10-$42.10). If the net benefit is positive, the average traveler will choose HSR over air travel.

Certainly, there are a number of reasons why a particular traveler will choose a certain mode. Travel time to the station/airport, access to connecting flights, number and ages of fellow travelers, personal preferences, and habit all come into play. Some individuals will value time more and some less. This analysis is designed to predict the average traveler by looking only at travel time and upfront financial cost.

Of the 29 city pairs included on the 5 corridors, 23 have regularly scheduled direct flights between them. As shown below, 17 of the 23 have positive net benefits compared to air travel.

Corridor	To/From	From/To	Time + Cost Savings		Projected Riders (Air)
	ATL	Greenville		237.85	160,654
	ATL	Charlotte		80.31	1,743,903
	Charlotte	Raleigh		145.21	723,127
	Greensboro	ATL		-45.52	0
SOUTHEAST	Greensboro	Charlotte		202.95	365,566
	Greensboro	Raleigh			0
	Greensboro	Greenville			0
	Greenville	Charlotte		169.89	85,687
	Greenville	Raleigh			710
	Raleigh	ATL		-109.42	0
	Austin	Houston		175.59	912,647
TEXAS	Houston	San Antonio		108.36	908,007
	San Antonio	Austin			0
	Chicago	Indy		85.49	754,556
	Chicago	Cincy		-62.47	0
	Indy	Cincy			0
	Indy	STL		-99.77	0
	Milwaukee	Chicago		165.75	335,003
MIDWEST	Milwaukee	Indy		160.92	17,481
	Milwaukee	Cincy		-89.53	0
	STL	Cincy		-22.23	0
	STL	Chicago		57.80	1,445,678
	STL	Milwaukee		63.73	110,001
	Cleveland	Detroit		160.98	104,253
GREAT LAKES	Detroit	Pitt		169.92	222,083
	Pitt	Cleveland		535.99	21,445
	Tampa	Miami		112.10	496,718
FLORIDA	Orlando	Tampa			0
	Orlando	Miami		49.69	1,011,866
					Total: 9.4 Million

 

Totaling all the existing air passengers on routes with positive net benefits gives a total of 9.4 million annual projected HSR riders. This is only the riders who previously traveled by air.

Next time, I’ll compare HSR to driving and add in those travelers.