I will be estimating high speed rail ridership for each
corridor using two groups: air passengers and drivers. Rail offers a different
combination of time and cost than driving or flying. Some HSR riders will come
from existing air travelers and some from existing drivers.
First, let’s look at air travelers. (Next time, I’ll include
drivers.) The numbers for air travel are easier, since there is solid data on
the number and costs of flights.
In order to compare time lost to money saved, I convert time
to money at an hourly rate of $42.1011 (71 cents per minute). The
result is the net benefit. For instance, if HSR on a particular route takes one
hour longer than flying, but a train ticket costs $72.10 less, the net benefit
is $30 ($72.10-$42.10). If the net benefit is positive, the average traveler
will choose HSR over air travel.
Certainly, there are a number of reasons why a particular
traveler will choose a certain mode. Travel time to the station/airport, access
to connecting flights, number and ages of fellow travelers, personal
preferences, and habit all come into play. Some individuals will value time
more and some less. This analysis is designed to predict the average traveler
by looking only at travel time and upfront financial cost.
Of the 29 city pairs included on the 5 corridors, 23 have
regularly scheduled direct flights between them. As shown below, 17 of the 23
have positive net benefits compared to air travel.
Corridor
|
To/From
|
From/To
|
Time + Cost Savings
|
Projected Riders (Air)
|
|
ATL
|
Greenville
|
237.85
|
160,654
|
||
ATL
|
Charlotte
|
80.31
|
1,743,903
|
||
Charlotte
|
Raleigh
|
145.21
|
723,127
|
||
Greensboro
|
ATL
|
-45.52
|
0
|
||
SOUTHEAST
|
Greensboro
|
Charlotte
|
202.95
|
365,566
|
|
Greensboro
|
Raleigh
|
0
|
|||
Greensboro
|
Greenville
|
0
|
|||
Greenville
|
Charlotte
|
169.89
|
85,687
|
||
Greenville
|
Raleigh
|
710
|
|||
Raleigh
|
ATL
|
-109.42
|
0
|
||
Austin
|
Houston
|
175.59
|
912,647
|
||
TEXAS
|
Houston
|
San Antonio
|
108.36
|
908,007
|
|
San Antonio
|
Austin
|
0
|
|||
Chicago
|
Indy
|
85.49
|
754,556
|
||
Chicago
|
Cincy
|
-62.47
|
0
|
||
Indy
|
Cincy
|
0
|
|||
Indy
|
STL
|
-99.77
|
0
|
||
Milwaukee
|
Chicago
|
165.75
|
335,003
|
||
MIDWEST
|
Milwaukee
|
Indy
|
160.92
|
17,481
|
|
Milwaukee
|
Cincy
|
-89.53
|
0
|
||
STL
|
Cincy
|
-22.23
|
0
|
||
STL
|
Chicago
|
57.80
|
1,445,678
|
||
STL
|
Milwaukee
|
63.73
|
110,001
|
||
Cleveland
|
Detroit
|
160.98
|
104,253
|
||
GREAT LAKES
|
Detroit
|
Pitt
|
169.92
|
222,083
|
|
Pitt
|
Cleveland
|
535.99
|
21,445
|
||
Tampa
|
Miami
|
112.10
|
496,718
|
||
FLORIDA
|
Orlando
|
Tampa
|
0
|
||
Orlando
|
Miami
|
49.69
|
1,011,866
|
||
Total: 9.4 Million
|
|||||
Totaling all the existing air passengers on routes with
positive net benefits gives a total of 9.4 million annual projected HSR riders.
This is only the riders who previously traveled by air.
Next time, I’ll compare HSR to driving and add in those
travelers.
